Could Cognitive Decline in Biden Justify Switching to Trump?

Only if you place a very low value on policies & principles.

Photo by Simon Ray on Unsplash

US Twitter is currently arguing furiously over the issue of President Biden’s apparent cognitive decline and the responsible way for those who support the Democrat platform to vote if the Democrat leader is unable to lead. What should an American who cares about their country and its citizens do if forced on a choice between a non-functional president in charge of a party whose policies they support or a functional president in charge of a party whose policies they do not support?

Let’s set aside for the moment the possibility that the president is not experiencing cognitive decline and is, as he has said, simply slower in his speech and movements than he once was, while as quick as ever in his cognitive processing and that he had also been taking sedative medication for a cold during the debate which has escalated concerns so significantly. It remains possible that fears are groundless, but what needs to be considered is the dilemma presented to those who intended to vote for him if they are not. In this case, it seems clear that Mr Biden must step down and let Kamala Harris or another prominent Democrat take leadership as soon as possible. If this does not happen either, the dilemma facing such voters is whether it is better to vote for the party with the policies they support but no functional leader or a party with policies they do not support but a functional leader.

My countryman, Konstantin Kisin, has given a particularly clear and concise argument that those who have intended to vote Democrat should recognise that a party with a functional leader is more important to the running of a country and the safety of its citizenry than specific policies.

While I feel the force of Konstantin’s argument - who could disagree that a quality essential to being the president of the most powerful country in the world is full mental capacity? - I have to disagree with his conclusion. Americans are in the realms of a truly bizarre and hopefully unique cost/benefit analysis that voters simply should never be forced to make. It seems clearer to me that, if forced on a choice between a less-than-fully-functional president directing the implementation of policies one thinks mostly good or a fully functional president directing the implementation of policies one thinks overwhelmingly bad, the former is the less terrible option. I suspect that the key factor that will decide most Americans facing this dilemma is how bad they perceive the Trump campaign policies or Trump himself to be for America in comparison to the policies of the Biden administration. If they were already torn on which was the lesser of two evils, Mr. Biden’s apparent cognitive decline could decide them on voting for Mr. Trump. For those to whom it seems clear that a Trump-led government’s policies would be terrible for America, the argument that they would be overseen more competently cannot be a selling point.

This also speaks to Konstantin’s point that the POTUS has to make very hard life-and-death decisions. It must be remembered that many people intending to vote Democrat but perceiving Mr. Biden’s mental faculties to be slowing already have longstanding pre-existing concerns about Mr. Trump’s cognitive processing as well as his impulse control, consistency, coherence, egotism, factual and moral reasoning, respect for democratic processes and relationship with reality. For those who think Mr Trump’s last presidency provides solid reason to have strong reservations about his ability (or intention) to exercise good judgement in making wise decisions in the interests of America and its citizens, the fact that these concerns have not newly arisen due to his age does not make them any less concerning. If Mr Biden’s cognitive processing has slowed to a point where a second term could require him to be steered by his administration in his important decision-making, this is a serious problem that surely calls for him to step down and let somebody else take leadership. However, for many Americans who have long argued that Mr. Trump’s mentality makes him not only incompetent but positively dangerous to the American people and the future of US democracy, it will not be obvious that the consequences of a Democrat government in which Mr. Biden is heavily reliant on his administrative team will be worse than the consequences of a Republican government being led by Mr Trump guided by his own judgement.

Konstantin also raises the problem inherent in Mr Biden potentially being or becoming unable to make unilateral decisions  when he says, “you’ve admitted that the man in charge of your country isn’t in charge.” As he also mentions, most of the running of the country is done by a vast administrative team operating according to party policy and overseen by the president with whom overall direction lies and the buck stops. It is extremely important that the president be capable of doing that job which, again, is why Mr. Biden needs to either set people’s minds at rest or step down. In the context of this bizarre and horrible situation, however, people intending to vote Democrat are currently looking at a choice between:

1) A government continuing to run according to the policies they think good for the country, overseen by a president whose cognitive processing appears to be slowing and who needs to be supported by a team to fulfil that role

2) A government running on policies they consider bad for the country and overseen by a president whose judgement and competence they have never trusted, who has refused to accept the results of a democratic election or confirm that he will comply with a peaceful handover of power and is currently facing felony charges including those of conspiracy to defraud the US and conspiracy against the rights of citizens.

Of course, people who support and intend to vote for Mr. Trump will assert that it is the Democrat policies that are terrible for the country and that the negative perceptions of Mr. Trump are so numerous and serious that they must be caused by a kind of collective derangement rather than large numbers of people from all over the political spectrum perceiving the same alarming traits and behaviours, They are also likely to add that the felony charges against him are false because the election really was stolen, and that he cannot be blamed for other people becoming violent and destructive when he drew attention to it. I will not attempt to address those claims here as this has been done many times by American political analysts much more knowledgeable than me. Unsurprisingly, Americans intending to vote Democrat are not convinced by this perception of reality and it is they who are being asked to justify why increasingly clear indications that Mr. Biden is suffering from cognitive decline does not make it clear to them that they should vote for Mr. Trump. The reason this is not clear to very many who are decidedly concerned that Mr. Biden may not be fit for office is because option 1) presents a risk that the ultimate decisions about the implementation of policies they believe to be good for America will not be directed consistently and efficiently by one man and may become confused or stagnate. Meanwhile option 2) presents a certainty that policies they believe to be bad for America will be implemented by somebody whose judgement and competence they distrust and whose commitment to upholding the democratic processes of the United States they have reason to doubt.

I could, not unreasonably, be suspected of taking a partisan position and indulging in motivated reasoning. I consistently favour left-wing policies and parties over right-wing ones despite my ongoing criticism of elements of the left that I consider to be illiberal, irrational and to undermine the left’s integrity, electability and core purpose to address socio-economic issues, create a level playing field for all and support the interests of the working class. I would certainly vote Democrat if I were American and I would do so even if the leader of the Republican Party were a thoughtful, honest, politically astute, ethically consistent exemplar of the conservative values that every liberal democracy needs, and which Donald Trump most assuredly is not. This is because I believe that my responsibility as a citizen of a democracy is to vote on the basis of policies I think will make my country a better place for everyone. The only reason I would not vote for the economically left-wing policies I believe best achieve that would be if the left-wing party were presenting a credible threat to the system of liberal democracy itself. This is a higher order system that must be protected above all if we wish to preserve a future in which governments derive their just powers from the consent of the governed. I am, therefore, biased towards the left and also have grave concerns that Mr Trump has given reason to doubt his commitment to upholding those liberal democratic processes upon which the United States was founded.

Nevertheless, I do not believe my reasoning to be skewed by my political biases or my concerns about Mr Trump, specifically.  It would be equally bizarre if somebody who believed a Trump administration to be the best thing for America and the policies of the Democrats to be potentially disastrous decided to vote Democrat on being given reason to believe they could implement disastrous policies more efficiently than the Republicans could implement good ones. There simply isn’t a context in which such reasoning could make sense. We must surely all agree that a positive vision for a country being executed poorly is a serious problem, but a disastrous vision for it being executed well is… disastrous.  

The only rational reason that Mr. Biden’s apparent cognitive decline would make somebody who had been planning to vote for him vote for Mr. Trump instead would be that they believed the latter’s policies and principles not to be significantly worse for the US than the former’s. That is, if they already hold a belief that Mr. Trump and his administration would run the country reasonably efficiently and ethically and honour the commitment to respect democratic processes required by the office of president. Anybody who believes that a Trump administration would be significantly worse for America and particularly those who take seriously his refusals to accept the results of elections and commit to a peaceful transition of power indicted cannot do this. They will now need Mr. Biden to either demonstrate that their fears are groundless or to step down honourably for the sake of his country and allow the vice-president or another respected Democrat to take his place so that they can support a party with clear leadership.

If Mr. Biden is unable to reassure voters that he is still fully fit for office and does not step down from it, Americans who intended to vote for him will need to reevaluate. Nevertheless, if their original evaluation had been that the policies and principles of the Biden administration are significantly better for America than the policies and principles of the Republicans under a Trump administration, they are unlikely to change their voting intention. Mr Biden’s cognitive decline, if confirmed, justifies calls for a change of leadership of the Democrats. It cannot justify the change of policies, principles and vision for the future of America that a vote for the Republicans under Mr. Trump’s would signify.